The good people at Mesa Issues have put together a roundtable discussion between bloggers who are covering the LD 18 Senate race. East Valley Immigration, Thoughts on Mesa, Sonoran Alliance and Adams and Jefferson agreed to participate. The fifth and final installment of this discussion follows:
5. Make a prediction on how you think the race will ultimately turn out.
East Valley Immigration:
Pearce wins by a good margin. The immigration stuff is too big for Gibbons to overcome.
Thoughts on Mesa:
I believe the race will ultimately turn out in Pearce favor. Before that happens though I believe that we will see a lot more negative mail pieces.
Russell Pearce will ultimately win this election. The attack on Russell will backfire even though he is outspent by his opponent and political action committees. Russell knows his district and he knows his voters. West Mesa voters will back Russell because he is one of them and an attack on Russell is seen as an attack on them. Gibbons and his supporters will leave the political scene quietly with some never getting involved in politics again.
Adams and Jefferson:
I predict that Rep. Pearce will win this race, but it will be close and may weaken him politically.
Pearce wins, but the polling will motivate some more people to come out against him. He must realize that this is not a ringing endorsement, but rather a great time for him to mend the rifts in the party and make friends. You must always be gracious in victory.
Participating in this roundtable discussion has been great, and I want to thank Mesa Issues for putting it together. It has allowed me to post something interesting during a very hectic couple of weeks.